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Sports – Chris Flannery

For the Birds

Birders rejoice, as there is at least a 50% chance of seeing a bird team win the Superbowl. Go Eagles!

Football

Bird teams in the NFC: 4 (Eagles, Falcons, Seahawks, Cardinals)
Bird teams in the AFC: 1 (Ravens)

Baseball

Bird teams in the AL: 2 (Orioles, Blue Jays)
Bird teams in the NL: 1 (Cardinals)

Hockey

Bird teams in the Eastern: 2 (Penguins, Thrashers)
Bird teams in the Western: 1 (Ducks)
Other teams with bird sounding names; 2 (Red Wings, Blackhawks)

Basketball

Bird teams in the Eastern: 1* (Hawks)
Bird teams in the Western: 0

* does not include the Raptors, even though they are diapsids

best record in baseball

For the past 3 hours the Orioles have had the best record in baseball. They will have it for at least another 20 minutes, until the brewers beat the reds. I am enjoying it while I can.

The Orioles have the league leaders in average (L. Scott – .500) and RBIs (Huff – 11).

I’d also like to thank the Mariners for the nice batch of pitchers.

Scooter, Dead

Phil Rizzuto, what can I say,  I never liked you. Now take it I never knew you as a baseball player, only the senile old man who tried to announce baseball games but had no actual interest in what was actually taking place on the field. You are one of the many reasons I despise the Yankees. Growing up I would sit with my neighbors on their porches and we would listen to you babble during Yankee games. They would tell me how great you were, I never got it. All you would do is congratulate seemingly random people throughout New York, New Jersey and Connecticut for birthdays, anniversaries, and bah mitzvahs. You paid zero attention to the game – I did not appreciate it. I wanted George Grande to punch in he side of the head. I would listen to my neighbors talk about how great the Yankees were, but all I can see was a less than average team (1988-89-90). Rickey Henderson was cool, I’ll give you that.

Phil, you made it to the Hall of Fame, even though you didn’t really have the #s to back it up (you were veteran’s committee vote-in). So what, you were definitely a character and thats something this world needs more of.

[tags]scooter, phil, rizzuto[/tags]

A Great July for Erik Bedard

Congratulations to Erik Bedard for a 5-0 (2.22 ERA) Month of July which earned him his first AL Pitcher of the Month award. During the month he had a remarkable 52 strikeouts in just over 40 innings pitched.

Tonight, Bedard extended his winning streak to 8 and added 11 more strikeouts to his MLB leading count of 192.

[tags]orioles, bedard, erik[/tags]

Danys, you suck.

danysbaezSo far in the Month of May, Dany Baez has given 11 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched. (thats a 10.9 ERA for christsakes!)
Send him for a rehab. Rehab from sucking.

5/24/2007: “But Baltimore’s good feeling wouldn’t last, as Danys Baez gave up the decisive run via a solo homer in the 10th inning.”

5/22/2007: “Baez, who usually pitches the eighth inning, has a 10.80 ERA in May. Baez’s struggles have contributed a stunning statistic: In May, Orioles starters have allowed 38 earned runs in 111 innings while Orioles relievers have allowed 39 in 47.2, an ERA of 7.36. . .”

5/20/2007: “Baltimore starter Erik Bedard did his job, striking out 12, but the Orioles bullpen fell apart as Washington came back to win 4 to 3. Nook Logan’s two-run single off reliever Danys Baez in the eighth with two outs capped the comeback. Baez got the loss and falls to 0-3.

5/19/2007: “Baez, who wasn’t used last night, has posted a 9.00 ERA in May, allowing eight earned runs in eight innings. Two of those runs scored Friday night when Ryan Zimmerman homered off him in the eighth inning to reduce the Orioles’ lead to 5-4 and make them sweat out a victory.”

5/15/2007: “Troy Glaus hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth inning and the Toronto Blue Jays rallied for a victory over Baltimore. Frank Thomas drew a one-out walk and was replaced by pinch-runner Jason Smith before Glaus drilled a 1-0 pitch from Danys Baez (0-2) into the second deck in left for his seventh homer.”

5/13/2007: “Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie carried a three-hit shutout into the ninth, but was lifted after catcher Ramon Hernandez dropped a popup for an error that became the turning point. The Red Sox took advantage, getting four hits, and three walks against Danys Baez and Chris Ray (3-3).”

[tags]danys baez, orioles[/tags]

Expected Win-Loss Record (X W-L)

Major League Baseball now posts (since mid-2006) a new stat:

X W-L – Expected won-loss record based on runs scored (RS) and runs allowed (RA), using this formula: RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82))

… what does this tell us?

Seemingly this stat can tell you how teams win, if the X W-L ratio greater than the actual W-L ratio the team loses close games but wins big, or if less than the team is winning close but losing big.

—–

for the real math behind it, check out this 1999 article form Baseball Prospectus

In practical terms, the implications are fairly small. For most off-the-cuff calculations of runs and runs allowed into wins, the 1.5% gain in accuracy isn’t worth the trouble of finding a new exponent for every team; just use 1.85 or thereabouts, and get on with your life.

It really makes a difference, though, to the small group of people who try to assess the value of a player’s performance as precisely as possible.

The most noticeable impact is going to be on the value of good pitchers in extremely pitching-friendly environments. A pitcher-friendly environment brings down the exponent; a good pitcher, by his own efforts, decreases the run environment and the Pythagorean exponent even further.

continue on for a good Bob Gibson example

Honestly, I don’t see how this helps anyone understand anything.

[tags]MLB, baseball, stats, X W-L[/tags]